Surprisingly, a couple people told me they were looking forward to my Oscar predictions post...so I figured I better stop being lazy and write one. This year is turning our to be somewhat predictable as far as the major categories are concerned. With a bit of luck, I may even beat Garney in our Oscar pool! The predictions (here is a list of nominees if you need a reference):
Best Picture (# of nominees I've actually seen - 9 of 10 (I know I've said I'm off to see The Blindside, like, 10 times now, but it hasn't happened. Get off my back!!!))
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
If it Wins, I will die inside: Avatar
Best Actress (3 of 5)
Should Win: Meryl Streep
Will Win: Sandra Bullock
Meryl's won a few times so I think the Academy will award Sandy for being so damn likable.
Best Actor (4 of 5)
Should Win: Jeremy Renner
Will Win: Jeff Bridges
I'm totally okay with a Jeff Bridges win. It's pretty much a "lifetime achievement" win, but I don't mind those. Plus, he was really good in Crazy Heart.
Supporting Actress (4 of 5)
Should and will win: Mo'Nique
Just one of those career making performances. No one else in this category really comes close.
Supporting Actor (1 of 5)
Should and will win: Christoph Waltz
Again, career making. I called this back in August and, as a result, didn't even bother watching the other nominees.
Animated Film (3 of 5)
Should Win: Fantastic Mr. Fox
Will Win: Up
Again, I'm fine with an Up win, but FMF should be recognized for its brilliance.
Best Director (5 of 5)
Should and will win: Kathryn Bigelow
As I said in my "review" of The Hurt Locker, it's awesome that one of the most talented "action" directors working today is female. Also, she should win just for also making Point Break.
Original Screenplay (4 of 5)
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
QT deserves this. You know it's true. And I LIKED The Hurt Locker.
Adapted Screenplay (5 of 5)
Should and will win: Up in the Air
It's a movie for our times, people!
So those are the biggies. Some other, general thoughts:
* Avatar should and will win most of the technical awards. I mean, c'mon. It changed things...like how I feel about blue cat people and spirit trees.
* The song from Crazy Heart sure as hell better beat effing Randy Newman in the Best Song category or Red will have to cut someone.
* Food, Inc. = Best Documentary Feature
So those are my thoughts. Agree? Disagree? Could not care less? Sound off below!
Thursday, March 4, 2010
Oscar Predictions 2010
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10 comments:
I never see any of the nominated films. I'm a Netflixer. The only nominee I've seen is "Up." I know, I'm lame. But I'm usually pretty good at picking the winners.
When did Sandra Bullock become "likable"?
If you're just NOW getting on board with the plight of blue cat people and spirit trees, you haven't played nearly enough games in the Final Fantasy series.
Don't judge me. You know what a loser I am.
I think I've seen most of the BIG nominated movies now apart from the Sandra Bullock one but that's cos I'm not big on sports movies. It's a sports movie, right? I just want "Up in the Air" to win something significant. I disagree about Jeff Bridges though in that everyone's saying "Oh he'll win because he's a veteran and it's his time" because I thought he gave an absolutely KICK ASS performance in "Crazy Heart" and totally DESERVES to win on its merit alone. I liked "Hurt Locker" but it wouldn't top any of my categories apart from maybe direction. I thought Carey Mulligan was better than any of the actresses in her category but won't win because she's this tiny young underdog. This year's Kate Winslet who won't win an actual award for a few more years. "Inglourious Basterds" was good but I didn't think it was THAT good. "Up in the Air" was better.
Let's face it, in the end it's the industry voting for themselves, therefore "should wins" rarely ever do.
I desperately want Fantastic Mr. Fox to win. That movie was perfect. I'm holding out hope for it.
As good as Meryl Streep is, I've never given her too much thought (outside of "Adaptation"), and Julia Childs is mostly just an SNL sketch to me. But I totally adore Meryl Streep AS Julia Childs. I wasn't looking forward to watching that movie, but I thought she was pretty fantastic.
We only disagree twice. You did all the easy categories. This year is pretty boring, though the whole ten pictures nominated and the weird voting procedure (voters must ranks all movies and whatever title has the least #1 picks gets knocked off the ballot and then those voters' #2 is counted until something gets a majority) makes the Best Picture race a little intriguing. Original Screenplay is the only real race in the major categories (though Precious stands a chance to upset in Adapted).
I'm gonna post a quick rundown.
My favorites this year were Inglourious Basterds and Up In The Air (I think I'd vote for IB just because it's more cinematic), but I wouldn't die inside if Avatar won. That movie is making people think about the definition of what a movie experience is supposed to be. It's suddenly not so clear that a great script and exceptional acting should necessarily trump the visceral experience of going to the theater. It's a significant movie, and that's why I won't be upset if it wins.
WWW: I agree with you to an extent on Avatar (I felt the same way about Titanic), but I think it shouldn't be rewarded with Best Picture because it neglected aspects of cinema that are vital to film excellence (character, story). I mean, there's an award for Visual Effects. Best Picture should be more than just visuals, no matter how groundbreaking.
I guess I don't think the story and acting were as bad as a lot of people think they were. I also judge things like this based on what the intent was. For instance, I wouldn't mark off something like The Hangover because of iffy camera work or a plot hole. For me, Avatar's story and acting were good enough to not ruin the overall impression. I also think popular opinion should count for something.
Again, I wouldn't vote for it. But I get it.
With the exception of one category (Best Animated Feature), you and I matched up on our predictions (I finally posted mine this morning).
Even though I rarely see any of the nominees until they hit DVD/cable, keeping a close eye on the awards leading up to the Oscars serves me well in making predictions.
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