Emmy Chat Predictions

Garney and I just ended a marathon chat about baseball and puppies and the Emmys, airing this Sunday. Here's a complete list of nominees and here's who Garney and I think will and should win in the major categories (yeah, it's long, so I've highlighted the "important" stuff if you don't feel like reading our terribly informative and occasionally witty banter, but really, who loses if you don't read why Bryan Cranston should really win the Best Actor in a Drama award? You, that's who):

Me: So the Emmy's are on Sunday

Garney: Are you going to watch the ceremonies or just check out who won?

Me: Probably watch the ceremony on fast-forward. Who's hosting?

Garney: How retarded... or to be more PC... how moronic is it to have the ceremonies hosted by the five people nominated for reality show host?

Me: Oh really? I kinda like that. Heidi Klum and Probsty!

Garney: While the creative arts Emmys get NPH and Sarah Chalke. I'd much rather see Neil Patrick Harris host the whole shebang.

Me: Yeah. That's for sure

Garney: I think he has the Supporting Actor Comedy Emmy in the bag

Me: I agree. Piven can't possibly win again

Garney: I don't think Entourage will win anything

Me: Yeah. No one seems to like that show as much as I do

Garney: It's grown on me on a lot... I didn't like it at all when it first started but it really hit its stride in season 2. It's definitely the male Sex and the City, but like Sex and the City, it will never win the big prize. What nominee are you rooting for most this Sunday? Out of every category

Me: Well, I'm hoping John Adams sweeps all the Miniseries categories (actor, actress, miniseries).

Garney: I'm sure you're siding with me that it will be an absolute travesty if Burns and Simon don't accept the award for writing for the series finale of The Wire....and I'm betting they lose. My biggest fear is that they lose to Damages since Mad Men is nominated twice in that category and there's no way they're giving it to BSG.

Me: True. I can't imagine Damages winning either.

Garney: Damages is in the running for best series though.

Me: I think the best shot for a Damages award will be Best Supporting Actor Drama for Ted Danson and I think he deserves it.

Garney: I think that's the only award Damages deserves.

Me: Agreed, and I liked that show.

Garney: But I think Glenn Close will win... even though I thought it was the worst overacting she's done since Fatal Attraction. It makes me miss her understated performances like what she did in The Natural

Me: She's the only performance I've seen in the Lead Actress Drama Series category, but I wouldn't be surprised if Kyra Sedgwick took the award. People love that damn Closer show.

Garney: You can't count out Holly Hunter either, but I wonder if a lot of people vote for Sally Field just to see what fucked up thing she's going to say in her acceptance speech.

Me: Very true. I'm rooting for Kristen Chenoweth to win Supporting Actress in a Comedy. I think she's got a good shot.

Garney: I'm also pulling for Chenoweth and I think she has a great shot at winning...but there's also Amy Poehler, who is the only SNL performer to ever get nominated in a major category for SNL, and she recently announced that she's quitting the show after the election, so this would be a good sendoff

Me: Very true. And Amy is very funny, but I don't think she has a shot in hell

Garney: I think you're right... and it's as it should be and it's all because the writing is so poor lately.

Me: Yes. I don't watch any of the shows with the Best Supporting Actress in a Drama nominees

Garney: It's Sandra Oh's turn to win

Me: That would be my vote, just because I like Sandra Oh

Garney: Mine too. Grey's is one of Michele's favorites so I caught almost every episode. This was a good season for her character... more emotional than usual

Me: Nice. I hope Stephen Colbert wins Variety, Music, Comedy Series. Just for the speech

Garney: I think he will... with the year that he's had…his book, his "presidential run"... the speech he gave at the correspondents’ dinner. Not to mention the Peabody, but I almost hope he doesn't because it will be even funnier on his show when he rants about it. One of my favorite Emmy moments from last year was when he complained to Jon Stewart about losing to Barry Manilow.

Me: Yes. That was hilarious. I really think Real Time with Bill Mahr deserves the award. No one does what he does so well. Okay Lead Actress in a Comedy series has to be Tina Fey, right?

Garney: I'd actually go with Christina Applegate and I think she'll win too

Me: Really?!

Garney: Perfect example of someone who makes the material better with their performance.

Me: Yeah I guess that's true

Garney: Samantha Who? is not a great show, but she does a really good job making it as funny as it possibly can be

Me: that's true

Garney: and they like to go with quirky for comedy actresses and she's definitely the quirkiest

Me: I dunno about that. Mary-Louise Parker is pretty damn quirky

Garney: I've never watched Weeds and I don't think enough voters do either for that show to ever win anything

Me: Lead Actor in a Drama is a strong category, too.

Garney: Exactly

Me: I'd be happy with John Hamm or Michael C Hall or Bryan Cranston. I think Bryan Cranston actually deserves it most

Garney: Me too... even Gabriel Byrne does a great job and James Spader is always good but enough is enough with him winning all the time

Me: Yes…for that shitty show

Garney: I'm definitely pulling for Cranston. Talk about a fearless unexpected powerful performance.

Me: I do love Michael C Hall as Dexter though

Garney: The main reason I'd pick Cranston over Hall is that Cranston doesn't have the benefit of voice over

Me: You think that really helps?

Garney: I think the voice over definitely makes Dexter more engaging and gets you inside his head

Me: yeah

Garney: You'd have no idea otherwise because of the way his character is

Me: good point

Garney: Cranston is able to be captivating in his silence

Me: very true. Man he is good in that role. Too bad more people didn't watch

Garney: It's even tougher to predict than it is to pick though

Me: yes

Garney: I think it's actually between Byrne and Hamm…which kind of rhymes with Birmingham

Me: I really think Hamm will win

Garney: Since Mad Men got nominated for series and In Treatment didn't I'd put my money on Hamm too, but Byrne is a more established actor and more people watch HBO than AMC

Me: Mad Men will win Best Drama. No contest.

Garney: It definitely should, but the Emmys are usually more groundbreaking in what they award Comedy Series and are a lot more boring when it comes to awarding Drama. Which is why I fear House may take it

Me: I was just going to say, I really can't imagine what would beat it...other than stupid House because Emmy voters are retarded

Garney: I think Mad Men will win though

Me: Me too

Garney: With it being such a passion project for Matthew Weiner, working on it all these years. Man Men is a true Cinderella story

Me: I didn't know that

Garney: Weiner pitched Mad Men to HBO almost ten years ago. He wrote the pilot in 1999 when he was working on Becker. It's what got him a job working on The Sopranos. David Chase saw the script and hired him

Me: Wow. Nice

Garney: Comedy Series... it's definitely 30 Rock vs. The Office even though Curb is way overdo for this award

Me: I agree Curb is overdo and this season was great, but as far as The Office vs. 30 Rock, 30 Rock was better this season. No question

Garney: I disagree... 30 Rock was great but The Office had some classic episodes with Toby leaving, Ryan's drug addled NYC clubbing, and best of all the dinner party…one of the greatest Office episodes ever. I still laugh when I remember Michael talking about the wine's "oaky afterbirth"

Me: Yes! I even rewatched the finale last night and laughed a lot, but while I agree there were classic episodes, everyone's favorite relationship (i.e. Pam and Jim) became incredibly boring.

Garney: You have a point there, but I don't care if they give the award to Two and a Half Men, just as long as Steve Carrell finally beats out Tony Shalhoub for Lead Actor in a Comedy.

Me: Yes. It's Carrell's year. He deserves it. He's so fantastic

Garney: and really Pushing Daisies should be up for series instead of Entourage. Even though the second half of the season of Pushing Daisies was not as good... the first half was so fresh and whimsical and unlike anything else on TV

Me: Agreed. Or instead of Two and a Half Men. Seriously, what the hell with that and Boston Legal being nominated every year?

Garney: I think they have to nominate Two and a Half Men to prove to themselves that the laughtrack sitcom will never die

Me: Probably. And my Dad claims it's the funniest show on TV. Though, he also laughs his ass off at Wipeout, so, you know. No accounting for taste and whatnot.

We then babbled on about writing and directing awards and Mad Men and Broadway shows, so I think I'll just end things there. And for the record, this post is lying in a huge pile of [sic].